1. WHAT IS EXTERNAL SECURITY
External Security refers to any threat that
a country, a nation, a State or a nation-State perceives to its identity, its
economy and its components, its stability, its borders and its population and
in particular the feel of the people, their mental and physical health as well
as to its social, technological and industrial infrastructure. The threat can be perceived which has not
been negated and real whose solution doesn’t seem to be materializing.
A country is almost always in a state of
threat to its external security, and it is perennially in a process of negating
these threats through diplomacy, alliances, geostrategies, etc.
2.
The threat that India faces externally
comprises of soft threats that affects
a.
the mindset of the people, such
as a colonial mindset, and being unaware of the loss of its own identity
b.
the health of the people both
mental and physical
c.
the threats to country’s
economy like its gradual sabotage, by eating into market and also with the help
of currency counterfeits, etc.
d.
the susceptibility of the
country towards cyber attacks, cyber warfare warfare information manipulation
and electronic warfare.
At the same time, India really faces some
challenges on its external front some of it on its borders both land borders
and maritime borders, its territories and through some military actions and its
plan. These challenges include
a.
Existence and Opening of a two
war front, if India safeguards itself against any nefarious designs of Pakistan
to thwart and to crush country destabilizing threats of terrorism emanating
from that region.
b.
The nuclear Threat emanating
from both of its neighbors
c.
China Pakistan Networking
d.
Threats to Arunachal Pradesh
and Siliguri corridor, and
e.
Maritime threats
India in reality faces all these threats,
and there is no country in the world that actually faces threats of such
dimension and such diversity with little to protect itself either from getting
supported by the citizens of India and its psyche and or structure of its
economy or even its defense preparedness.
India is the only country in the world that
faces two nuclear arms loaded countries, one going insanely jealous and other
lusting for its territory and people.
While all the threats are real and they
exist, the emphasis of this chapter is mostly on the geostrategic perspective.
Multiple Challenges
In considering India’s external security
the country’s policy makers have to bear in mind the economic backwardness and
political instabilities of its smaller neighbors, the continued inimical
relations that Pakistan has maintained with India. It has used terrorism as an
instrument of foreign policy and as a force equalizer. India has to contend
with the intentions of a powerful China that would seek to be the paramount
power in Asia. External security would demand assessment of conventional
military threats but in addition, terrorism, energy security, environmental
degradation, demographic changes and access to natural resources including
water and markets are the new factors. The nature of threats that emanate from
the weakness of the smaller countries and those from the intentions of the
bigger countries, China and Pakistan, are different and need different responses.
Cross-border threats
Most external threats emanate from an
unsettled boundary dispute with China that has been forced on India and ongoing
cross-border jihadi terrorism in J&K sponsored terrorism, supported by ISI
and Pakistan-based Islamist fundamentalist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba
and Jaish-e-Mohammad who, in turn, are inextricably linked with international
jihadi groups like Taliban and Al Qaida.
Threat from Bangladesh assumes serious
dimensions since it became a base for northeast insurgent groups like ULFA and
Naga factions. Of late, it has also been serving as a conduit for ISI sponsored
infiltration of terrorists along India and Bangladesh’s porous border.
To cap it, nuclear threats from neighboring
states and from jihadi groups have the potential of using nuclear weapons in
the foreseeable future, significant being China-Pakistan nuclear nexus.
The
Smaller Neighbours
A billion Indians, with enough problems of
their own, thus live in a troubled part of a troubled planet. They live in an
era of exploding expectations with limited resources and in economies of
shortages across the entire South Asian region. The region continues to remain
economically backward and politically unstable. Pakistan and Bangladesh, two of
India’s most populous neighbours, are rapidly slipping into religious
obscurantism. India will continue to face demanding challenges from its
neighbours.
These are Nepal’s continuing domestic
turmoil as it struggles to introduce democracy in the midst of a violent
campaign led by the radical left wing ‘Maoists”; Bangladesh’s recession into a
thinly veiled military regime after its troubled experience with democracy and
slide into Talibanisation; and, Sri Lanka’s unending fratricidal war arising
from the inability of the Sinhala majority to reconcile to the demands of an
increasingly violent Tamil minority. Myanmar, with whom India has a long land
frontier, has largely been an aloof and distant neighbour although there are
signs of a thaw in the midst of fears that China may have become the relevant
power in that country. A little further away but strategically relevant to
India in the context of Pakistan and access to Central Asia, is Afghanistan
which continues to slide into unending chaos.
The largest Muslim concentration in the
world, about 450 to 460 million live in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Of
these, about one third is in India. This makes them the largest number of
Muslims living in a democratic set up for the longest time, any where in the
world today. The rest have been under an increasing influence of dictatorships
and Islamic radicalism at a time when state policies have weakened liberal
societies while an anti-American sentiment has grown sharply. The challenge
here for India is to keep its own Muslims immune from external influences where
attempts are undoubtedly being made not only to suborn them but also
simultaneously, to provoke a Hindu backlash.
India cannot help its size or strength and
has to live with the title of a regional hegemon or even a bully at times
accused of arrogance and intrusiveness when trying to help or being haughty and
indifferent when trying to stay away. India baiting thus is common in
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. It is perhaps natural that some of them seek
comfort wit the distant power against the local power. Some of the neighbours
do not wish to share in the prospects of mutual prosperity that India might
offer but are willing to share poverty. These countries seek their own security
by isolating themselves from India defying the logic of geography.
Consequently, countries of the
sub-continent are unable to maximise economic complementarities and
opportunities to the extent that they hardly trade with each other. Transit
routes are denied, common rail and road links are virtually non-existent. It is
this lack of common economic and security perceptions among the neighbours
which have hamstrung multi-lateral organisations like SAARC, unlike the EU or
the ASEAN, which function as a common platform for diverse interests they
represent. The other problem is that India is being globally recognised as a
rising economic power but the region is slow to recognise and take advantage of
this evolving new situation.
For India, the nightmare is a failed state
in its neighbourhood and the influx of refugees with their socio-economic
impact as India, despite its economic size, does not have the capacity to
bolster the sagging systems in all these countries for all times. The choice is
whether or not to become a totally dysfunctional state is the individual choice
of the state yet how this is handled will be a major challenge for India in the
future. Bangladesh, for instance, surrounded on three sides by India and
crucial to India’s economic development, has the choice to become the
birthplace for the next Islamic revolution or a reasonably modern economic
state. Closer economic and trade tie-ups with India would generate employment and
reasonable prosperity within the country. India could become an important stake
holder in Bangladesh’s prosperity but is hampered by that country’s domestic
political compulsions which seek sustenance in anti-India rhetoric. The same
principles apply to Nepal where its political future still seems uncertain as
the mainstream traditional political parties battle it out for space with the
radical Maoists who seek a complete overhaul of the system. Sri Lanka seeks
better political and economic ties with India but is constantly being pulled
down by its own ethnic problems and the occasional urge to balance India with
China. Bhutan has successfully amalgamated its economic system with India and
has benefited from this. Myanmar has been difficult to prise it open for Indian
interests but objects to any suggestion that it allows China a freer hand than
other countries.
No comments:
Post a Comment